Three prevalent themes in the discussion
- Google’s control over Android (Play Services & delayed AOSP) creates a strong moat that discourages forks
- “Google does have a card to play here… the Google bits of Android are good enough to keep open‑source ROMs and small manufacturers away but they aren’t a silver bullet …” – realusername
- “The huge, huge carrot that Google carries in front of everyone thinking to fork Android … Western consumers … won’t buy Chinese devices if they don’t carry the Play Store.” – mschuster91
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“Right, so the userbase is the true moat. Same stories as anything social.” – numpad0
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Chinese manufacturers and HarmonyOS are seen as a viable alternative/fork threat
- “8 out of the top 10 manufacturers are Chinese. Google has to be careful here, otherwise Android will end up as a Chinese consortium …” – realusername
- “Or China will migrate to Harmony and drop Android altogether.” – wiseowise
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“Yes that's also a real possibility. The sanctions on Huawei were a terrible idea, it became a laboratory of what could be rolled out on the whole country if needed.” – realusername
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Open‑source Android‑based alternatives exist (GrapheneOS, LineageOS, /e/OS, etc.) but struggle with app compatibility, hardware support, and adoption
- “Alternatives exist. They just need significant adoption.” – thbb123
- “They exist. But they don't support Android apps that are unfortunately necessary. For example, any phone without WhatsApp or banking apps support is dead on arrival in Europe.” – reddalo
- “GrapheneOS has an estimated 500,000 active installs now … LineageOS has 1.4M active installs.” – microtonal
- “The problem doesn't lie with e/OS/, nor any other alternative. Google locks down capabilities with 'Play Integrity', effectively attestation for official Google approved operating systems only.” – fenaer