1. China's EUV Progress Significant but Far from Production-Ready
Skepticism dominates on China's light source working but lacking full fab capability, optics, and ecosystem; ASML's moat is precision, suppliers like Zeiss, and institutional knowledge.
"A better title would be 'New EUV light source built in Shenzhen'. Light source said to be working, not fabbing chips yet." (Animats)
"The light source is the 'easy' bit. The mirrors, masks, and the rest... are all individually as difficult if not more so." (jiggawatts)
"ASML's moat isn't the machine itself but the ecosystem: Carl Zeiss optics, decades of supplier relationships." (darkamaul)
2. US Leverage Over ASML via Supply Chain and Export Controls
Debate on US control of EUV sources (Cymer), Dutch bans under US pressure, and risks of NATO rift; China persists via sanctions incentives, cheap energy/yields.
"ASML develops... at the pleasure of Uncle Sam because the USA licensed them the tech." (renewiltord)
"China... going all in with cheap coal + solar... even if they achieve lower yields... economically competitive." (bgnn)
"No, they won't beat ASML but they'll be good enough and most importantly cheap." (petre)
3. Talent Poaching and Reverse-Engineering via Ex-ASML Employees
China recruits retired Chinese-born ASML/Zeiss experts with big bonuses; West debates sanctions, openness, and brain drain risks.
"All you need is a retired Chinese ex employee at Zeiss... they have the money and people." (mk89)
"The team includes recently retired, Chinese-born former ASML engineers... offering signing bonuses... $420,000 to $700,000." (mk89, quoting article)
"China sends... citizens to... top companies... True Believers... bring back... knowledge to... CCP's goals." (decafninja)