Three prevalent themes in the discussion
- Viral, simplistic financial advice vs. deeper intuition
- “You can’t beat the market, dollar‑cost average into index funds!” is the kind of viral story that will earn you nods of approval from millennials and upvotes on Reddit. – dash2
- “Pattern matching… can drive you to make moves like an advanced chess engine.” – dash2
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“As for the advanced chess engine of intuition… ever heard of Fooled By Randomness?” – dash2
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Market efficiency dooms most active participants
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“If you're engaging in a market, realize that approximately 90% of active participants will lose money in an efficient market.” – incognition
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Preference for legible/orderly systems because they are predictable and analyzable
- “Why does legibility bias persist across society, even when we are aware of it? One answer is: it soothes people.” – threethirtytwo
- “Illegible systems are less predictable and harder to analyze… our modern engineering is built on top of quantitative modeling … the only things we can really model are ordered and simple systems.” – threethirtytwo
- “Order is preferred and it is not bias. It’s because order has intrinsic advantages with analysis.” – threethirtytwo